TLDR Founders 2026-04-10
SF is back π, AI dysfunction trap βοΈ, SaaS market rout π
Webinar: The Startup Ops Playbook β Lessons from Hello Patient CEO and Rippling (Sponsor)
Most founders figure out HR ops the hard way β state filings, scattered contractors, benefits nightmares β after something breaks. Alex Cohen, CEO of Hello Patient, built a 40-person distributed team across 15+ states without the chaos.
The webinar:
- A free, 60-minute session on May 7 at 10 AM PDT
- Featuring Alex Cohen, CEO of Hello Patient (40-person team, $30M raised)
You'll learn how to:
- Build an HR ops stack from day one
- Manage a team across 15+ states without compliance headaches
- Access big-company health benefits at a startup-friendly price through a PEO
Before Hello Patient, Alex tweeted which PEO to useβspoiler: Parker Conrad had advice.
Register Now
SF is back - and the tech social scene is being run by the terminally online (6 minute read)
SF's tech social scene is driven by the "terminally online," with connections and events organized through platforms like X and Partiful. Traditional social proof is replaced by mutual online interactions, impacting how relationships and trust are formed. This shift suggests a potential broader trend where online social dynamics shape real-world interactions globally.
The SaaS rout of 2026 is even worse than you think (5 minute read)
For the first time in the modern era, software stocks now trade at a discount to the S&P 500. The iShares Software ETF (IGV) is down over 21% YTD and roughly 30% from its September 2025 peak, wiping out about $2 trillion in market cap. The structural problem: AI is breaking the link between headcount growth and revenue growth. If agents replace seats rather than complement them, the per-seat recurring revenue model that justified premium software valuations could unwind entirely.
Venture Capital Has a Starting Line Problem (7 minute read)
Venture capital often favors well-networked founders who start with advantages like connections and financial runway, leaving others at a disadvantage from the start. This disparity isn't about in-room investor bias, but rather the different starting lines shaped by existing networks and resources. Underrepresented founders must proactively build credibility within these ecosystems to secure funding, despite systemic inequities.
Anthropic sees the moat. Do you? (7 minute read)
Legacy enterprise software won by storing records. The next generation of companies will win by building enough trust with enterprises to work with the workflows where important actions actually happen. Trust converts capability into permission to work in enterprise. Anthropic is not the only company pursuing that position, but it is one of the clearest examples of it.
How to use AI without losing your mind (8 minute read)
Most people are failing the basic test of whether their AI use cases are even big enough to matter. This essay splits work into execution (automate it) vs exploration (use AI as a thought partner, not an answer machine) and argues that most people should ignore 90% of new AI tools and focus on a small set of mature ones applied to their hardest problems. Good antidote to the anxiety-driven "you must use every new tool" narrative flooding tech Twitter.
Advice and Lessons for Founders (1 minute read)
Online startup narratives often distort reality through selective success stories and misleading exit optics that hide weak or zero-return outcomes. Cofounder misalignment, role overlap, and shifting contribution levels create common failure modes that surface as resentment or functional redundancy. Recurring friction from legal threats, employee apathy, and relationship-driven sales increases founder workload and emotional strain.
Demand mix, shaping, and AI as (dys)function multiplier (10 minute read)
AI will not fix broken product orgs. It will accelerate whatever dynamics already exist. If your team treats engineering as a bottleneck and optimizes around feeding it work, AI just speeds up that dysfunction. If your team is oriented around learning and shaping demand toward real outcomes, AI makes that more effective. Most orgs never examine their "demand mix," meaning where work actually comes from and how it gets shaped, and that gap is about to get a lot more expensive.
βBig AI", and the value of a business (6 minute read)
Over 70% of mid-market B2B distribution businesses are expected to change hands in the next decade. This monthly update from the CEO of a B2B logistics software company explores how making operations more systemized and "Amazon-good" can double a business's value before exit. He also makes the case for "one to many" distribution through channels and partnerships over traditional direct sales, arguing the old SaaS playbook is losing steam.
β οΈ Warning for founders: the current danger zone in VC (2 minute read)
The market can stay irrational longer than most founders can stay solvent. Improving your financial profile should be your top priority. It could take a couple of years. Either get profitable, or ensure that you have enough funds to last for a very long time.
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