TLDR Founders 2025-03-31
New AI Risk Curve š¤, CoreWeave IPO š¹, Shared understandingĀ š¤
The New AI Risk Curve (3 minute read)
AI startups grow faster but fade faster too. They can reach $50M ARR quickly but might shrink in year four as their lead vanishes. Unlike past tech eras where physical infrastructure (on-premise) or engineering teams (cloud) created barriers to entry, AI tools make it easy for competitors to catch up at any point. This creates a new risk curve where impressive growth numbers no longer guarantee lasting success as technology keeps shifting under everyone's feet.
CoreWeave's IPO Disappoints, Inflation Comes In Hot (3 minute read)
CoreWeave, an AI infrastructure provider, priced below its target range at $40 per share. It raised $1.46 billion by selling 36.5 million shares, but missed its initial $47-55 range after concerns about datacenter overcapacity dampened enthusiasm. Meanwhile, inflation ticked up with February PCE hitting 2.5% year-over-year and core PCE reaching 2.8%āboth above expectations and worrying given upcoming auto tariffs.
2024 VC Fund Performance (4 minute read)
The venture capital market has changed since the 2022 boom. The median LP count for funds between $100-250M dropped nearly 50% (from 83 to 47). Remaining LPs now write larger anchor checks. Performance data shows declining returns across all vintagesāfunds from 2017-2020 have lower median IRRs, with the 2017 vintage falling from 16.8% in Q4 2021 to 12.0% by Q4 2024. Smaller funds show better top performance (2018 vintage funds under $10M have 4.03x TVPI at the 90th percentile versus 1.67x for funds over $100M), though many funds still struggle with distributionsāhalf of 2018 vintage funds have yet to return any capital to investors.
Storytelling Is The āMake Or Break' Skill Founders Are Lacking (7 minute read)
Despite available VC dry powder, 2025 may see another wave of failed startups due to fundraising challenges. Startups will struggle to gain attention, especially non-AI companies. Early-stage founders often neglect effective storytelling. Founders must articulate compelling narratives to differentiate themselves, drive investment, and build credibility.
Inside Figma's Pricing Evolution (3 minute read)
This post explains how to fix pricing as you add products. Figma moved from charging separately for each product to a simpler system with three seat types based on user needs. This solved a common founder challengeāhow to expand your product line without creating pricing chaos. The new model (Collab, Dev, and Full seats) kept things clear for customers while enabling a 20-35% price increase for power users and driving the adoption of newer tools like Slides.
The Path To Product-Market Fit (3 minute read)
Small AI startups now achieve hypergrowth without massive funding or hiring sprees. Four ingredients make this possible: intense demand (when markets pull your product because it solves urgent problems better), a repeatable unit (one customer type, one product, one process), scalable pipeline (one reliable lead source plus word-of-mouth), and compression (constantly making your customer journey 50% faster and easier). Master these elements and you can build an efficient growth machine with minimal overhead.
Greta (Product)
Greta helps you build full-stack applications designed for growthāno coding required.
Pieces Long-Term Memory Agent (Product)
Pieces is a Long-Term Memory Agent that remembers everything you work on, capturing and resurfacing workflow details across your desktop.
Quadratic AI (Product)
Quadratic is an AI-powered spreadsheet with built-in code and data connections for instant insights and interactive charts.
Shared Understanding At Scale (5 minute read)
Stop drowning in team confusion with five practical fixes: cut unused "strategy layers" that nobody references, design simple formats for sharing updates, create different dashboards for different roles, accept that some teams move faster than others, and pick frameworks that show real problems instead of hiding them. Teams that follow these rules make better decisions because they see what's actually happening instead of getting lost in complicated planning documents that nobody reads.
First Shareholder Letters (5 minute read)
The first shareholder letter sets the tone for a company's entire public journey. Steve Jobs emphasized Pixar's focus on "pictures, not quarters," Larry Page warned Google investors about "lumpy" results from long-term bets, and Jeff Bezos declared Amazon would sacrifice "GAAP accounting" for future cash flows. These letters reveal what truly matters to foundersāJamie Dimon's demand for "the highest standards" at Bank One and Steven Rales' insistence on "simple, understandable businesses" at Danaher showed their strategic DNA before success proved them right.
The New Rules of AI Startup Growth: 5 Key Lessons from Cohere, Together AI & Salesforce Ventures (4 minute read)
AI startups are shattering traditional SaaS growth models with exponential scaling. They achieve this through "Experimental Revenue," leveraging rapid technology evolution, novel applications, and customer behavior changes. Successful AI companies are now marketing-led from inception, focusing on transforming experimental revenue into stable production use while simultaneously running multiple growth initiatives.
Get our free, 5-minute newsletter read by 200,000 startup founders, entrepreneurs, and CEOs
Join 360,000 readers for
one daily email