The Weak-Link Asymmetry: AI's Peril and Promise

The authors argue that in a weak-link economic production model where tasks are strong complements, the productivity gains from artificial intelligence are bounded and arrive slowly, whereas the potential damage from targeted cyber, physical, or biological attacks is unbounded and immediate. Because attackers need to break only a single critical link while defenders must secure every one, the negative externalities of AI capabilities typically outweigh the positive productivity spillovers, suggesting that the market overinvests in AI and that Pigouvian taxes may be warranted. Open article →