SpaceX, xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic face $5 trillion IPO valuations scrutiny

The author argues that the sky-high market valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic require implausible financial growth to deliver standard returns to public investors. Achieving a 20% annual return would demand that these companies reach unprecedented economic scale while navigating severe market traps including deflation, competition, deflationary pricing, and circular capital booms. The analysis concludes that public market buyers face historically low odds of success under normal economic conditions. Open article →