Anthropic’s AI acceleration is probably real

An analysis of a redacted METR report on Anthropic suggests that the company's AI capabilities have accelerated significantly, improving at nearly double the previous rate since late 2025. The author argues that public data reproduces much of this trend break and supports the conclusion that the acceleration is driven primarily by AI capabilities rather than non-AI factors like compute or hiring. However, whether this trend will continue or run into bottlenecks remains uncertain. Open article →