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The AI Superforecasters Are Here (30 minute read)

The AI Superforecasters Are Here (30 minute read)

An AI superforecaster is an AI modified to be good at forecasting. This usually involves a scaffold that handholds the agent through a long research process. There are now several companies that claim to have AI superforecasters with incredible performance and results. They appear to be making crazy profits on prediction markets and beating the stock market by some comfortable amount.
I Tried to Build a Context Layer for My Agent in a Weekend. Reader, I Did Not Build a Context Layer for My Agent in a Weekend.
Jun 12 | Blog

I Tried to Build a Context Layer for My Agent in a Weekend. Reader, I Did Not Build a Context Layer for My Agent in a Weekend.

A "simple" weekend project turns into real infrastructure, and why agent context deserves a boring, reliable foundation.

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A Field Guide to Fable: Finding Your Unknowns (12 minute read)
Jul 06 | AI

A Field Guide to Fable: Finding Your Unknowns (12 minute read)

The difference between the map and the territory is the unknown. When Claude runs into an unknown, it needs to make a decision based on its best guess. The more work that is done, the more unknowns Claude might run into. This post discusses how to use Claude to help discover unknowns. Discovering your unknowns before starting a project is a cheap way to find out what you didn't know before it gets expensive to fix.
Medtronic Data Breach Impacts 3.8 Million People (2 minute read)
Jul 06 | Infosec

Medtronic Data Breach Impacts 3.8 Million People (2 minute read)

ShinyHunters accessed Medtronic's corporate IT systems in April and stole patient data, including names, contact details, dates of birth, Social Security numbers, and health information. Medtronic reports 3,834,294 affected individuals and says it has no evidence that the data was posted online. The company is offering 24 months of credit monitoring, dark web monitoring, and identity theft restoration, and is working with law enforcement and regulators.
A Google Ads targeting tactic that cut invalid clicks by 50% (4 minute read)
Jul 06 | Marketing

A Google Ads targeting tactic that cut invalid clicks by 50% (4 minute read)

Use Google Ads audience targeting as a filter to reduce invalid clicks when click fraud is hurting your campaign performance. One account cut its invalid click rate by 50% after adding hundreds of Google predefined audiences and setting them to Targeting instead of Observation. The approach limits ads to users who match both keywords and Google's audience signals. It works best for accounts with unusually high invalid click rates because it can also exclude legitimate users who do not fit Google's predefined audiences.

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